DISRUPTION RADAR // SEVERITY 0-100
RISK REGISTER // RANKED
Power & Grid Constraint82
103 → 200 GW by 2030; binding everywhere
Capex / Revenue Bubble78
$725B vs $51B revenue. Goldman 'elongation' base case.
Agent Reliability Failure72
88% pilots stall; eval gap; identity gap
China Decoupling70
Export controls tightening; China full-stack push
Regulatory Fragmentation65
EU AI Act, state-level US, China sovereignty
Talent Flight60
H-1B $100K fee hike; K-Visa & Korea Top-Tier compete
Model Commoditisation55
Open-weights match frontier at 1/10 cost — except reasoning tier
Antitrust / Reverse-Acquihire50
FTC/DOJ scrutinising MSFT-Inflection, AMZN-Adept, GOOG-Character